“To do the best job for your clients, to help them make the most of their lives, you must go beyond the oversimplified analysis of returns. You have to use probability analysis to uncover facts and expose myths.”-David Loeper, “Is One Better than Three?”
The financial services industry can be a strange beast. So often conflicting information is presented and seems plausible. If you think it is tough for the public, try working in the industry and having to answer questions from many sides. It seems that everyone has an opinion, knows somebody special, or has a recent visit to Delphi telling them the future.
Here are my answers as of today. I do not know the future. If any person tells me they know the future, I am extremely skeptical (and you should be, too). The longer I am in the industry, the simpler I like the solutions. They may be easier to understand and we can, many times, avoid other challenges. We cannot confuse simple and sophistication. Working out the challenges means making things appear simple. Finally, statistics do not provide all the answers when dealing with humans. They do provide a guide when used with logic and a way to help make decisions with more confidence.
So, is one better than three? May I suggest reading David Loeper’s latest article? http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters11/Is_One_Better_than_Three.php